Pulp volume increased, inventory decreased, and th

2022-05-18
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According to pppc statistics, in March, the global wood pulp export volume increased by 22.6% month on month to 4.009 million tons, up 17.4% from 3.416 million tons in the same period last year. Among them, the shipment volume of bleached coniferous pulp increased by 18.6% to 1.987 million tons compared with February; The transportation volume of broad-leaved pulp increased by 28.3% to 188.3% month on month The protection requirements of the product itself are also relatively good, 910000 tons. The global wood pulp inventory days were 32 days (including 24 days for coniferous pulp and 40 days for broad-leaved pulp), down 3 days from February, and the operating rate rose to 101%

as we expected, wood pulp shipments rose and inventories began to fall: we released a report on February 21 this year that pulp prices will continue to rise in the next two years and are firmly optimistic about the price trend of wood pulp in the next two years. Our core logic is that the relationship between supply and demand of wood pulp will continue to improve in the next two years. In terms of supply, due to the impact of the financial crisis, key regions such as South America have delayed some projects originally scheduled to be put into operation in, resulting in a blank window for new projects in the world this year and next, with almost no large-scale new projects. On the other hand, the global demand for wood pulp will resonate in 2011, and the import of wood pulp from China and Europe and the United States will increase at the same time, changing the situation of one ebb and flow in. Combined with supply and demand, we expect that the operating rate of global wood pulp plants will continue to rise in the next two years, the relationship between supply and demand in the wood pulp market will continue to improve, and the price rising trend is clear

China's wood pulp imports continued to remain strong, slightly exceeding our expectations: in March, China imported 1.16 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of 14% month on month and nearly 19% year-on-year. In the first quarter, China imported 3.46 million tons of wood pulp, an increase of nearly 30% year-on-year. According to the current situation, China's imported wood pulp will reach about 10000 tons this year, which is nearly 1 million tons more than the 12.7 million tons we predicted for the whole year. We believe that there are two main reasons why imports exceeded expectations in the first quarter: on the one hand, China's paper output increased rapidly. In the first quarter, China's cumulative paper output increased by 14% year-on-year, much higher than the 7.7% growth we expected for the whole year; Second, some chemical fiber factories purchase bleached coniferous pulp to produce dissolved pulp. We are still optimistic about China's wood pulp import in the next five years, maintaining the view of increasing by 10000 tons per year and importing 20 million tons of wood pulp in 2015. The main reason to support our view: the growth rate of China's paper production can still be maintained at 7% - 8% in the next five years; In addition, a large number of household paper, coated paper and cultural paper with wood pulp as the main raw material will be put into production in recent years. The change of product structure will increase the demand for wood pulp

paper consumption in Europe and the United States is relatively weak, but the rise in paper prices supports the price of wood pulp: from the data of January and February this year, the paper consumption in the United States is weaker than we expected, with a year-on-year decline of nearly 5%; The European market is basically the same as the same period last year. We expect that under the background of the improvement of the European and American economy, the trend of the improvement of paper consumption will remain unchanged, but it is more likely that the paper consumption in the United States is lower than our expectation, and we still maintain the view of 2% growth in the European market. Although the paper consumption in Europe and the United States is slightly weaker than expected, the rise of paper prices still forms a strong support for the price of wood pulp. Since 2010, European and American paper mills have raised the paper price for many times, generally by about $100, and the price rise of some kinds of paper has even reached US dollars. The rise of paper price is more conducive to the rise of wood pulp price. In addition, the wood pulp inventory of European and American paper mills is relatively low, which is also a support for the pulp price

there is no need to worry about the decline in the internal price of wood pulp in the domestic market: Recently, the price of bleached coniferous pulp has fallen by 200 yuan/ton and that of broad-leaved pulp has fallen by 150 yuan/ton. The main reason for the price decline is the relative weakness of the domestic paper market, but we don't think we should be too pessimistic about the future market: on the one hand, we think the paper mills will still seek to continue to raise the paper price in the second quarter; On the other hand, we believe that the influence of the internal market on the external price is relatively small. Foreign suppliers have formed a community of interests. Under the background of the continuous improvement of the relationship between supply and demand, there is no possibility of reducing the price; In addition, we believe that the increase in the proportion of high profit varieties in the paper output structure will also enhance the affordability of wood pulp prices. (now more than 1 million tons of household paper will be put into production every year)

the price of dissolved pulp has fallen, but it is still attractive compared with wood pulp: affected by the decline of cotton price, the price of dissolved pulp has fallen, but we believe that compared with the production of wood pulp, the profit of dissolved pulp is still significantly higher than that of wood pulp. Therefore, the trend of wood pulp plants to switch to dissolved pulp will not change, which will also benefit the chemical pulp market

firmly optimistic about the future market of wood pulp: it is inappropriate for the global bleached coniferous pulp to measure the deflection by using the displacement of the beam. It was increased by $30/ton in March and April respectively, and the global bleached broad-leaved pulp was also increased by $30/ton in April. We expect that with the gradual rise of the demand of the paper industry and the improvement of the paper price, the rising trend of the pulp price will remain unchanged under the support of the relationship between supply and demand

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