PTA prices fell sharply, and the medium-term trend

PTA prices fell sharply, and the medium-term trend is still not optimistic

since May, the main contract ta009 of PTA has made a small consolidation around 8000 yuan/ton. Driven by the escalating European debt crisis and the continuous diving of oil prices, PTA futures prices showed a large-scale and rapid diving trend in the first half of the month, and several important support positions 7800 and 7600 were successively broken in a short week. In the second half of the month, after maintaining a short weak consolidation market, the price hit a new low, falling to around 7300 yuan/ton. However, in the last few trading days of this month, stimulated by the strong economic data of the United States and China's denial of reducing its holdings of European bonds and other good news, oil prices rebounded sharply, which led to the stop and recovery of PTA futures prices

the escalation of the European debt crisis triggered a sharp drop in oil prices

years later, under the influence of the global economic recovery and the expected increase in crude oil demand, crude oil prices have maintained a volatile upward trend. And at the beginning of this month, it hit the highest price since the rebound of oil prices in 2008. When the market predicted that oil prices would rise again to $90/barrel, the upward trend of oil prices died halfway. The July contract of US crude oil fell to the lowest US $67.15/barrel in three weeks from the highest US $89.32/barrel this month, down more than 20%. Analyzing the reasons, it can be considered that there are the following reasons:

figure shows the trend of July contract of New York crude oil futures

figure shows the trend of July contract of New York crude oil futures. (picture source: God forms a virtuous circle of China Futures)

first of all, an important factor supporting the rise of crude oil prices is the expectation that the US economy will further recover. In addition, the increase in gasoline demand during the peak travel in the US in summer, the possible reduction of crude oil production caused by the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the recent crude oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico have not been completely solved, but actually, from the perspective of supply and demand, as of the end of this month, According to the weekly crude oil inventory released by the EIA, in the past 17 weeks, the crude oil inventory has been increasing continuously for 16 weeks, and the crude oil inventory has reached a record high level. Basically, the crude oil is still in a state of oversupply, which is difficult to support the falsely high oil price

secondly, China factor is also an important reason for the high oil price in the early stage. In the early stage, under the influence of domestic loose monetary policy, China's economy recovered strongly, which also promoted commodity prices. Due to the increase in demand for crude oil due to economic growth and the speculation of international speculators, crude oil prices have been at a high level. However, the recent tightening monetary policy and the expected slowdown in economic growth have reduced the growth of crude oil demand

finally, the escalation of the European debt crisis has become the fuse of the recent sharp decline in oil prices. Since the end of April, with the exception of Greece, the sovereign evaluation of Spain, Portugal and other countries have been lowered one after another, and the debt crisis has gradually spread from Greece to other countries in the eurozone. In order to save the European economy, the EU Monetary Fund provided these countries with high government guaranteed loans and increased the purchase of eurozone government bonds. The concern that the measures can effectively save the European economy and the increase in the euro money supply have led to the accelerated weakening of the euro. At the same time, it is understood that the US dollar, which is widely used in automobile, aviation, medical devices, furniture, machinery manufacturing and other industries such as the production and utilization of springs and shock absorbers, is popular in the market, The strengthening of the US dollar and the market's concern about the future economic recovery have dealt a double blow to the excessively high crude oil price, resulting in a sharp decline in oil prices in a short time

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