Steel exports are expected to peak, and the steel industry is expected to enter the reduction adjustment period
steel exports are expected to peak, and the steel industry is expected to enter the reduction adjustment period
China Construction machinery information
Li Xinchuang, Executive Deputy Secretary General of CISA and President of metallurgical industry planning and Research Institute, said on December 7 that China's steel exports will reach a peak of 110 million tons in 2015, and the future exports will not be so high due to trade friction, But it will remain high
he believes that this is a feature of China's steel industry entering a period of reduction development, which will last for at least 10 years
according to the 2016 steel demand results report released by China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute, China's crude steel output will fall to 806 million tons in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%
Li Xinchuang believes that this is a signal that "China's steel production has not declined in the past 20 years, which is the first time that production has declined"
production reduction helps to resolve overcapacity
resolving the serious overcapacity is a problem that the current government has been trying to solve. On October 15, 2013, the State Council issued the guiding opinions on resolving the contradiction of serious overcapacity (hereinafter referred to as Guofa No. 41 document). Steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, flat glass and ships are the key control objects
in that year, according to the data released by China Iron and Steel Industry Association, the main business of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was still profitable, although the sales profit margin was only 0.62%. In 2014, the main business of large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises was still profitable, and the sales profit margin increased to 0.85%. However, in the first October of 2015, the main business loss of China Steel Association (88 members) was as high as 72billion yuan, with a loss surface of nearly 50%, that is, nearly half of the member enterprises did not contact the upper platen loss at this time. This is the real winter time for China's steel industry
Li Xinchuang believes that China's steel industry should and has entered the stage of reduction development. He stressed that "production reduction" is not "de capacity" -- "China's steel industry has been reducing production since 2015, and this trend will continue. It is not simply to reduce production, but to really reduce production"
reduction development will bring more steel enterprises to shut down. "According to incomplete statistics, so far, dozens of steel enterprises have been shut down, involving more than 60 million tons of production capacity." Li Xinchuang said
at present, there are more than 500 steel enterprises listed in domestic statistics. Among the 88 members of CISA, 80% of the enterprises produce steel with an annual output of about 90 million tons to 100 million tons
due to the decline in the absolute amount of consumption, domestic steel production fell, and the market was depressed, but the foreign market was relatively hot. In 2014, China exported 93.78 million tons of steel, with a year-on-year increase of 50.5% in the use of automotive, electronic and electrical appliances, aerospace and other fields. Li Xinchuang said that China's steel exports increased by 24% year-on-year in the first October, and will reach a peak of 110 million tons in 2015, accounting for about 10% of the total steel production
under the circumstances of the sluggish trade situation, the state does not encourage exports, and the increase in steel trade frictions, China's steel exports can maintain a double-digit growth against the trend. Li Xinchuang believes that this is China's steel "good price, good quality and good service"
"if you can't do these three points, if the quality is not good, no one will want it. How can you export it?" Li Xinchuang disagrees with some countries' accusations that China's steel products compete at low prices and that the government gives subsidies
"this is determined by the market," said Li Xinchuang. He made eight reports at the international forum in 2015, and each report mentioned the export of China's steel products
"I don't think we have government subsidies. The relocation of individual enterprises belongs to individual cases. Western countries are very unfriendly to us by making an issue of this. This kind of discrimination is wrong." Li Xinchuang said that, especially at the OECD meeting in 2015, he spent an hour and a half refuting the representatives of the United States, the European Union, Japan and other countries on this issue, while the original time for each person to speak was only 15 minutes. "I take the trouble to tell them the truth. Mistakes always have to be corrected."
recently, nine American and European Iron and steel associations proposed that China's overcapacity in steel will lead to a serious overcapacity in the global steel industry, and China's exports will reach a new high in 2016. Therefore, they questioned and opposed China's acquisition of market economy status in accordance with the agreement of China's accession to the WTO [Weibo] in December 2016
in response, Li Xinchuang said, "there is absolutely excess capacity in China's steel industry, which is no different. But I ask a simple question? What is the economy of excess capacity? It must be a market economy. The economic department (staff) of the U.S. Embassy comes to me every year to communicate. I ask him, since you say I have excess capacity, I must be a market economy, and you don't admit it."
according to the statistics of the Ministry of commerce at the beginning of the year, 97 trade frictions were involved in China in 2014, of which steel products were the most involved, accounting for 27 cases, accounting for nearly 30%, and became the hardest hit area of trade frictions
in the first half of 2015, China's steel products involved 58 cases of anti-dumping, countervailing and trade safeguard measures, an increase of 12 cases compared with the same period last year, involving 20 countries such as Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Among them, the United States initiated the most trade frictions against China, with 11 cases; Australia and the European Union ranked second and third, with 9 and 7 cases respectively
"some western customers also asked that they (the party that initiated the trade remedy investigation) were wrong. Why didn't Chinese enterprises respond to the lawsuit? Our users can support it together." Li Xinchuang said that the production of blow molding machines in China constituted big data. In the face of "anti-dumping" inaction, some cases were not handled in time, which would affect exports
therefore, Li Xinchuang predicts that China's steel exports will fall in 2016, but will remain at a high level. He believed that the export remained at a high level and the export proportion increased, which was one of the characteristics of the steel industry at the stage of production reduction
there are also three characteristics of the production reduction stage of the steel industry: this stage is a long-term process that lasts for at least 10 years; In this stage, the process structure changes; Eliminate a large number of backward production capacity and promote innovative development at the same time
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